Sunday, 8 February 2015

Coalition in a world of pain at 55/45

This week's Newspoll is the latest in a run of bad results for the federal government. Putting them all together, and correcting for the historical accuracy of each pollster, the model has come to see a pretty large movement towards the ALP. Right now its best guess is 55.4 on the two-party preferred in favour of the opposition.

Here's how it looks in the national primary votes:

This is the Coalition's worst polling situation since late 2009, when (as the Piping Shrike points out) Malcolm Turnbull was leader. If the election were held right now, this would translate into the ALP picking up a majority of about 96 seats. To be clear, this model is just a snapshot of current voting intentions; it's not a prediction of how people might be feeling in eighteen months' time.

Looking at the recent movements in national voting intentions, and squaring that up with the available data on states and territories, the model figures that the best explanation is that the Coalition's standing has deteriorated most rapidly in Queensland.

It seems the recent state election campaign didn't play out too well for the federal LNP. Using last election's preference flows, and comparing that to the electoral pendulum, you'd find the Coalition having a real struggle to defend fairly safe seats like Dawson (George Christensen) and Dickson (Peter Dutton). Incidentally, Kevin Bonham has a cool graph on the change in respondent preferences, showing that even using last election's preference flows might be too favourable to the LNP.

For more details on the model: the code and all the data are available on GitHub.

Saturday, 31 January 2015

January update

The model reckons that the ALP's two-party preferred vote is right now sitting at 53.8. As you can see on the chart, the last couple of polls were a bit higher than that. But they're being interpreted as a bit noisy, at least until a more consistent trend emerges.

The level of the trend is essentially the same as BludgerTrack and MarkTheBallot, but a fair bit below the preliminary 2015 estimate from Kevin Bonham.

The model's two-party preferred number comes from the previous election's preference flows applied at the state and territory level. Here's how the underlying primary votes look like at the moment. It's interesting to see that the ALP's recent surge has still left it below its 2004 and 2007 levels. I guess the higher level of the Green vote would be partly responsible.

If an election were held today, all this would translate into an ALP majority of a bit over 87 seats.

Monday, 17 November 2014

Chunky swing brings ALP back to post-Budget level

This week's Morgan and Newspoll must be somewhat concerning for the Government, with both reporting a two-party preferred of 55/45 in favour of the ALP. Here's how that looks in context:

That's an estimated 54½ as of last weekend, with a 90% confidence interval of about 1½ percentage points on either side.

I'm calculating the two-party preferred trend by using last election's preference flows applied to underlying primary votes. It seems that a few percentage points' worth of voters have switched from the Coalition to the ALP in the last week:

Translated into seat-by-seat outcomes, that would deliver a large ALP majority, with 87 seats won by the Opposition in the median case.