Thursday, 28 August 2014

Hiatus almost over

Sorry to go quiet. I've been househunting in one of the tightest markets I've ever seen, which has taken up all my spare time. Moving in on the weekend, so normal service should resume soon after.

Monday, 11 August 2014

A mixed fortnight

The latest model update has three new datapoints in it: last week's Essential, and the new Morgan and Newspoll. (Sorry to be slow off the mark with the Essential; I'm in the middle of moving house.) The Essential release had the two-party preferred at 51/49, and the timing of it is consistent with a brief tick up in the government's polling last week. But the two later numbers have all but wiped that out. The model's best guess is that the current national vote is still close to 52/48.

Here's what that looks like in the seat-by-seat simulations. The (possible) change in direction right at the end of the sample has added a bit more uncertainty into the simulations compared to last time.

For more details on the model, see How It Works and 2016 Assumptions.

Monday, 28 July 2014

A mediocre polling week for the Coalition

According to this week's polls, national voting intention has been pretty much unchanged, and may even be heading back towards the opposition. The Galaxy and Morgan estimates were consistent with the 52/48 theme from last week, but Newspoll has moved the trend a quarter of a point in favour of the ALP.
Update: Okay, it was a bit of a stretch to say that it 'may even be heading back towards the opposition'; adding in this week's Essential has made the model revise away the little Newspoll wiggle, and it's a bit more confident that there could be a slow drift in the government's favour.

Still, if the government was hoping for a [solid] polling bump from its handling of the MH-17 affair, it will have to keep hoping. On that basis, the simulated election results still look pretty much like a decisive Labor win.

For more details on the model, see How It Works and 2016 Assumptions.