I've spent the last few weeks standing in line for the new iPhone, but today I put together the polling numbers that have come out during that little hiatus. The government has clearly recovered from its abysmal post-Budget polls, but the model's current estimate still has the ALP with a 51/49 lead.
That translates into a 53% probability that the ALP would form government in its own right, if the election were held this weekend. The next most likely outcome is a hung parliament, which happened in one third of the simulated outcomes.
The latest model update has three new datapoints in it: last week's Essential, and the new Morgan and Newspoll. (Sorry to be slow off the mark with the Essential; I'm in the middle of moving house.) The Essential release had the two-party preferred at 51/49, and the timing of it is consistent with a brief tick up in the government's polling last week. But the two later numbers have all but wiped that out. The model's best guess is that the current national vote is still close to 52/48.
Here's what that looks like in the seat-by-seat simulations. The (possible) change in direction right at the end of the sample has added a bit more uncertainty into the simulations compared to last time.